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Review:
Fossil fuels, Renewable Energy and
the Middle East
Lesley Pocock
Publisher
New Paradigm Journal
Middle East Journal of Business
Executive Director
Planetary survival
www.planetarysurvival.net
Email: lesleypocock@mediworld.com.au
Overview
With maximal output/declining supplies
of fossil fuels globally, and with
their contribution to global climate
change, along with the current concerns
over Nuclear Energy, exacerbated by
the ongoing radiation leakage at Fukushima,
Japan, following the earthquake and
tsunami of March 2011, and indeed
with the current upheaval in the socio-political
climate of the Middle east, it is
an excellent time for the region to
re-appraise energy production and
needs with a view to the viable future
of energy supplies, the needs of the
people and the economy of the Middle
east, and indeed the future of a viable
ongoing humanity.
The end of this great period of global
pollution and destruction of ecosystems
through the unmitigated use of fossil
fuels, and in almost all cases for
'private wealth' of the few, claiming
to own these planetary oilfields,
cannot come too soon. Though that
does not mean an end to economic advantage.
Paying the 'real price' for energy
that does not pollute is and always
will be cheaper and is the first step
toward sustainable energy and sustainable
growth.
Currently the cost of rampant and
clumsy exploitation (e.g. the BP fiasco
in the Gulf of Mexico) is being borne
by the ordinary people of the planet,
the other species, and mostly by future
generations. Not only should fossil
fuels be used sparingly to carefully
control carbon emissions, they should
also be kept in store for future populations.
Our technical expertise and invention
can be used just as well to harness
renewable sources of energy such as
solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, biomass
and bio-fuels as appropriate to each
geographical location.
MENA Primary Energy Demand by Fuel
If we look two or three or four decades
into the future, we see that hydrocarbons
alone will not meet the needs of a
growing world economy. Even with all
the technical expertise and all the
political will, eventually, we will
run out of oil.
And, even before then, the price of
a dwindling supply will be prohibitive.
At present, our world is overly focused
on, and overly dependent upon, one
source of energy and that path is
unsustainable.
If energy production and use continues
at the current pace, the economy is
headed down a very counter-productive
path. As fossil fuels become more
scarce, prices will increase causing
more conflict and insecurity. And
with the affects of climate change
- desertification, loss of arable
land, and rare but extreme flooding
- the region will become increasingly
reliant on food imports.
Cumulative MENA Energy Investment
2004- 2030
As a response to these trends, there
is a growing global interest in alternative
forms of energy production. If fossil
fuels are replaced by more future-adept
technologies, it is possible to mitigate
their detrimental trends, reduce carbon
emissions, conserve and avoid the
cost hikes of non-renewable natural
resources, reduce dependence on imported
energy resources such as uranium,
natural gas, and oil, and increase
energy resource exports, to benefit
the region economically and socio-politically
for years to come. At the same time,
mitigating the increase in carbon
emissions will have a significant
impact on moderating global warming.
Types of renewable
energy
Solar Power utilizes the energy from
sunlight either indirectly or directly.
It can be used for heating and cooling,
generating electricity, lighting,
water desalination, and many other
commercial and industrial uses.
- Wind Power captures the energy of
the wind through wind turbines.
- Biomass Energy uses the energy from
plants and plant-derived materials,
such as wood, food crops, grassy and
woody plants, residues from agriculture
or forestry, and the organic component
of municipal and industrial wastes.
- Geothermal Energy utilizes the heat
from the earth, drawn from hot water
or steam reservoirs in the earth's
mantle located near the earth's surface.
- Ocean Energy traps thermal energy
from the sun's heat and mechanical
energy from the tides, underwater
currents and waves.
- Hydropower captures the energy from
flowing water to power machinery and
produce electricity.
Renewable Energy has the capability
of meeting all world energy demands
if utilized properly.
The world market is becoming more
favourable to renewables. According
to statistics defined at Middle East
Electricity, over the past 10 years,
electricity generated by renewable
energy has been developing at the
highest rate in the world's energy
and electricity market. The increased
rate of solar power generation is
as high as 30.9 percent, followed
by 30.7 percent for wind power generation.
Economic Renewable
Electricity Potentials v demain in
EUMENIA
Image from http://cleanpeace.org
The earth receives an incredible supply
of solar energy - the sun provides
enough energy in one minute to supply
the world's energy needs for a full
year. In one day it provides more
energy than our current population
would consume in 27 years.
World view
Hydrocarbon releasing fossil fuels
(oil, gas) will not meet the current
demands of the world's population
as it now stands and with rising living
standards and consequent increased
energy use in India and China - the
two most populous countries; there
will a huge demand on all energy sources
and on the ability of the planet to
absorb the carbon released. We are
currently at maximal production level
or decreasing levels according to
which expert you believe - only maximum
production levels will be maintained
with the development of or finding
of major new resources (equalling
the deposits in Saudi Arabia). Even
developing or finding new forms of
fossil fuels, such as tar sands, shale
oil and gas, requires high energy
consumption for such extraction and
the need to extract increasing supplies
that are no longer abundant becomes
even more polluting than oil extraction,
with processes affecting ground water,
and arable land.
Climate change, desertification, acidic
seas, loss of arable land, basic living
needs will become threatened if we
continue to use these fuels in such
abundance as in the past. One-third
of greenhouse gases are caused by
the use of fossil fuels.
Nuclear power,
while advocated by those with vested
financial interest in its use, and
with those looking at short term economical
gain has yet again been shown to be
unsuitable IF the lives of people
are to be important on this planet.
The people of each country all need
to have a say as to what development
goes on in their country and at what
cost to themselves and their environment
- it is not just the design of nuclear
reactors that needs to be monitored,
but more importantly the ongoing maintenance
by qualified and aware personnel and
the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters
show this is very doubtful, given
the history of humanity, and that
such energy should never be put in
the hands of those with commercial
interests in it.
The Middle East Oil situation
According to the Reference Scenario
referred to in World Energy Outlook
2005, this increase in energy supply
calls for a cumulative infrastructure
investment of about $1.5 trillion
over the period of 2004-2030, or $56
billion per year in the Middle East
and North African Region.
In countries where oil is plentiful,
such as Iran, the government is also
heavily subsidizing electric energy
production. In Iran, 1.2 million barrels
of oil are consumed domestically at
much lower prices than the rest of
the world, while 2.3 million barrels
of oil are exported.
Costs are also great for countries
with few of their own indigenous energy
resources, such as Jordan. Energy
imports account for as much as 10%
of GDP, and will continue to rise
50% in the next 20 years, according
to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral
Resources.
Furthermore, MENA energy-related carbon-dioxide
emissions will double by 2030, primarily
from power generation and water desalination,
if the business-as-usual case continues.
The Middle East and renewable options
While countries such as Egypt, Libya,
Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco stand
to gain immensely from the advent
of European investment in solar and
wind power technology, other Arab
states, notably in the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC), are looking to nuclear-generated
electricity to resolve local power
shortages and increase their desalinated
water capacity.
Recent figures
showing the massive energy potential
of the Saharan sun have persuaded
EU officials, as well as some of Europe's
biggest corporations - including Munich
Re, Deutsche Bank, Siemens, E.ON and
RWE of Germany, ABB of Switzerland,
Abengoa of Spain - and Algeria's Cevital
to launch a $570 billion solar development
programme. Desertec aims to generate
up to 550GW of electricity over the
next 40 years, from installations
that will initially be located in
Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and
Egypt and later in the deserts of
the Middle East from Turkey to Saudi
Arabia and Jordan.
An initial $5.5
billion in funding was announced in
December 2009 by the World Bank's
Clean Technology Fund. The power will
be used for local needs, as well as
for export to Europe, through 20 high-voltage,
direct current cables laid under the
Mediterranean Sea, costing up to $1
billion each.
The Middle East
and North African (MENA) states could
earn up to $90 billion a year from
such exports, according to a report
by the US management consultants AT
Kearney, and help to provide up to
100,000 new jobs in the region.
Another massive
scheme, the Mediterranean Solar Plan,
has been set up by French President
Nicolas Sarkozy's Union for the Mediterranean.
It will cost some €60 billion
and aims to produce 20GW of power
by 2020. Like Desertec, it will use
concentrated solar power from giant
reflecting surfaces connected to super
turbines, as well as the more conventional
photo-voltaic (PV) technologies that
rely on solar panels.
Several Arab countries
have also signed agreements with European
partners to develop solar energy and
other renewables. Qatar is investing
$220 million in a low-carbon technology
fund in Britain. Jordan's King Abdullah
is making 2 million square metres
of land available to build the world's
largest PV plant, costing $400 million,
with the help of Solar Ventures of
Italy.
The newly opened
King Abdullah University for Science
and Technology in Saudi Arabia is
funding programmes to develop renewable
energies and related technologies
in partnership with universities in
the UK, Italy, the Netherlands and
the US. In September 2009, the minister
for petroleum and mineral resources,
Ali al-Naimi, announced that the Kingdom
plans to make solar energy a major
contributor to its energy supply within
the next five to ten years. In addition,
he said: "Saudi Arabia aspires
to export as much solar energy in
the future as it exports oil now."
In the UAE, the
$22 billion Masdar City aims to create
an entire carbon-neutral urban conglomeration
and to showcase the best available
technologies for the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions, including
solar and wind power. Masdar City
is to be the headquarters of the new
International Renewable Energy Agency
and home to Masdar Institute of Science
and Technology, an affiliate of the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Mubadala, the parent company of Masdar
(Abu Dhabi Future Energy Co) is investing
in solar-panel manufacturing plants
in Germany as well as in the UAE to
power the new city. The UAE's Masdar
Institute and the UK's Department
of Energy and Climate Change are co-funding
research into renewable energy policy,
to support the work of the International
Renewable Energy Association, and
are also launching a partnership of
government bodies and private sector
companies to help small businesses
to deploy more low carbon energy sources.
The UAE, which
has one of the world's largest carbon
footprints, is also well advanced
in developing a large-scale programme
to generate nuclear energy as part
of its plan to obtain 7 per cent of
its electricity needs from renewable
energy by 2020. Current plans call
for the construction of 14 nuclear
power plants, with at least three
completed by 2020, when, the government
estimates, an additional 40GW of electricity
will be needed.
The UAE, in line
with the rest of the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC), has signed the nuclear
non-proliferation treaty and has agreed
to obtain its nuclear fuel from "reliable
and responsible international suppliers".
According to 'REN
21: Renewables Global Status Report
2007,' though the share of fossil
fuels in the global final energy consumption
in 2006 stood at 79 percent, the fact
that the share of RES has climbed
to 18 percent is a clear indication
of trends.
A report by the
Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre (GRC),
'Alternative Energy Trends and Implications
for Gulf Cooperation Council Countries',
offers this analysis: "High costs
of fossil fuels alongside technological
breakthroughs and decreasing costs
with growing economies of scale will
play out well for RES, which have
developed into an industry to reckon
with and are also underpinned by growing
government support and concerns about
global warming."
Contracts have been let for a 100
MW solar power facility that will
be built near the capital of the United
Arab Emirates (UAE).
Abu Dhabi's renewable energy company,
Masdar, will work with Abengoa of
Spain and Total of France to build
Shams 1, at a cost of US$500 to US$700
million. Total and Abengoa will own
20% each of the project, with Masdar
controlling 60%.
The facility will install 768 parabolic
mirrors to be the largest concentrated
solar power plant in the world, extending
over 2.5 km2 and generating green
power for 62,000 homes. Construction
will begin later this year and be
completed within two years.
No automobiles will be allowed within
Masdar City's walls. A solar-powered
water desalination plant will provide
water for the city's population, which
could reach 50,000.
The Shams 1 plant (Shams means 'sun'
in Arabic) represents one of the first
steps towards the introduction of
sustainable energy sources in an energy
market which until now has depended
mostly on hydrocarbons, explains Masdar.
Abu Dhabi has a target of 7% of electricity
to be generated from renewable energy
facilities by 2020.
Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari
speaks during the World Future Energy
Summit at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition
Centre Jan 17, 2011
U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon
is pushing for an overhaul of current
energy consumption trends and for
more investment in green technology.
Speaking at the fourth annual World
Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi,
Ban said renewable energy could help
solve a number of the planet's most
pressing problems.
"We need
a global clean energy revolution,
a revolution that makes energy available
and affordable for all. This is essential
for minimizing climate risks, for
reducing poverty and improving global
health, for empowering women and meeting
the Millennium Development Goals,
for global economic growth, peace
and security, and the health of the
planet."
Ban warns global
energy consumption is set to rise
by 40 percent in the next two decades,
with the highest growth expected in
developing nations.
He also pointed
out that more efficient power would
greatly help people living in poorer
countries.
"Investing
in the green economy is not simply
a luxury of the developed countries.
It represents opportunity for job
creation and economic growth in developing
countries and prosperity for all."
Pakistan's president
agrees. Speaking at the Abu Dhabi
summit, Asif Ali Zardari described
his country as "an example of
the world's energy crisis""
Pakistan has been
hit by a number of recent natural
disasters and Zardari believes that
they are at least somewhat connected
to global warming caused by the burning
of fossil fuels.
"Even the
most cynical can no longer deny the
unavoidable consequences of climate
abuse. The question before us today,
the great issue for our generation
is whether we have the courage and
determination and the vision to do
whatever is necessary, to reverse
the deadly process that is choking
our children's future."
Ethical considerations
The biggest ethical consideration
is 'human ownership' by the very few
, of these vital resources, and while
governmental ownership is preferable
to private ownership, history has
show that very little of this wealth
gets to the people themselves; rather
they lose natural assets.
Multinationals, or dictators exploiting
and degrading the planet for fuel
supplies for personal gain surely
is becoming a thing of the past and
an ethical and sustainable approach
is long overdue. This need not be
detrimental to the Middle East as
it has many renewable energy options,
and indeed is in a favourable position.
Renewable potential in the Middle
East
Experts say that
the overall technical potential for
renewable energy is huge and several
times the current total energy demand.
According to the International Energy
Agency, global electricity consumption
in 2050 could be between 113 and 167
Exajoules (EJ). The technical electricity
production potential of RE technologies,
excluding biomass, is almost 2,500
EJ per year.
"Sustainable
energy investment was 70.9 billion
US dollars in 2006, an increase of
43 percent over 2005. The sectors
with the highest levels of investment
are wind, solar and biofuels, which
reflects technology maturity, policy
incentives and investor appetite,"
Eckart Woertz, programme manager at
the GRC, told IPS.
Investments in
developing countries still play a
minor role in comparison, but increasing
quickly and are already considerable
in China, India and Brazil. Currently
India 4,300 of Mw a year, followed
by China with 765 Mw.
Analysts feel
this new emphasis on RES also arises
from the growing realisation that
oil is a finite resource. Hence, they
are now seeking to conserve and prolong
the longevity and value of their hydrocarbon
resources, especially since the global
demand for fossil fuels is bound to
increase and prices are likely to
remain on the higher side.
Further, given
their enormous liquidity they are
also confident that they can be just
as successful in developing RES as
they were in developing their oil
industry.
Most importantly,
shortages in domestic energy supply
are looming up for the rapidly growing
GCC countries, and many of them are
already facing gas scarcities.
Saudi oil minister
Ibrahim Al Naimi recently stated that
his country is planning to make solar
energy an important pillar of the
national energy mix. Hailing solar
energy as "abundant, clean and
available to all," he said Saudi
Arabia will be giving ''that sort
of energy special attention''.
Within the mix,
Saudi Arabia plans to include waste-to-energy
plants that can convert commercially
hazardous, organic and toxic wastes
into saleable electricity.
In Oman, a roadmap
for the development of RES has been
outlined. The establishment of large-scale
solar thermal plants and a 750 Mw
wind farm in the south of the country
rank prominently among proposed projects.
A study is being
carried out for the Dubai Electricity
and Water Authority for a one billion
US dollar wind farm that aims to supply
up to 10 percent of Dubai city's power
requirement.
The Tunisian government
outlined plans to develop solar power
capacity to diversify reliance on
traditional source of electricity.
40 projects planned for 2010-2016,
29 schemes financed by private sector.
Morocco is undertaking
a $9 billion solar energy project,
with 5 solar power generation sites
throughout Morocco producing 2,000
MW of electricity by 2020.
Jordan has the
JOAN1 project which is expected to
enter operation in 2013 and will be
the largest CSP project in the world
using direct solar steam generation.
Businessweek, Stanley Reed described
the rise of the "nuclear option"
in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi
Arabia, and Jordan. At the forefront
is the U.A.E., which placed a $20
billion order for four nuclear reactors
from Seoul-based Korean Electric Power
Corp. The Saudis have followed with
a plan to construct an entire city
focused around nuclear energy, while
Jordan's extensive nuclear ambitions,
fueled by the discovery of large uranium
reserves, see the country satisfying
a third of its electricity demands
with atomic power by 2030.
The short explanation
is skyrocketing domestic demand for
energy in general and electricity
in particular, both fueled by rising
populations and GDPs. In its International
Energy Outlook 2010, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration forecast
energy consumption in the Middle East
to climb by 45 percent from 2007 levels
to 2020 with an annualized growth
rate of 2.2 percent, demand growth
that is second only to Asia. Electricity
demand in the United Arab Emirates
alone is expected to grow by 10 percent
over the next three years, according
to a report from the research firm
RNCOS.
We've learned the hard way in incredibly
coincidental events that we are in
firm control of almost none of our
major sources of power: Deep-water
oil drilling can be perilous if the
company carrying it out cuts corners.
Because of chronically bad governance
by petrostates, we can't necessarily
rely on OPEC supplies either. Shale
gas drilling may result in radioactive
contamination of water, though who
knows since many of the companies
involved seem prepared to risk possible
ignominy and lawsuits later rather
than proactively straighten out their
own bad methods.
China suggests that, while it is observing
the events in Japan, it is proceeding
with the largest expansion of nuclear
power anywhere in the world (at the
New Yorker, Evan Osnos blogs on China's
nuclear power binge). In general,
a lot of experts think the developing
world will likely push ahead with
its nuclear plants.
Turkey is still intent on building
the country's first nuclear reactor
on this serene spot on the Mediterranean
Coast. Cyprus says the zone falls
right on a fault line.
Despite the imminent meltdown of Japan's
nuclear facilities now going from
bad to worse, countries in the Middle
East are announcing their clear intentions
to stick with nuclear programs. Earlier
this week Israel announced it would
continue planning for a nuclear reactor
in the Negev Desert, Australia offered
uranium to the United Arab Emirates,
and now Turkey, the People's Daily
of China reports, is going ahead with
the construction of its first nuclear
reactor, Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday. In fact
for Turkey, the sooner, the better
he urged.
We need to really look carefully at
the place of nuclear energy, given
that it is not entirely renewable
and its capacity to destroy the entire
planet. Future generations I am sure
will class it in the same polluting
and questionable category as fossil
fuels.
We need to be
much smarter than just grabbing the
next resource and if this generation
does not start to look at future needs
and the future state of the planet
then there will be no future - our
history to date has been one of expediency
and short term gain since industrialisation
began.
References
IEA Fact Sheets: Renewables in Global
Energy Supply
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/renew_leaflet_sept2006_web.pdf
Ten Steps to a Sustainable Energy
Future
http://www.ipf-renewables2004.de/de/beitraege/ten%20steps%20to%20a%20sustainable%20
energy%20future.pdf
Solar Energy Villages for the Middle
East
http://www.foeme.org/index_images/dinamicas/publications/publ41_1.pdf
Can Renewable Energies be turned into
a Source of Advantage by Developing
Countries?
http://www.gsm.mq.edu.au/facultyhome/john.mathews/Mathews%202007%20Rev%20de%20l.E
nergie%20corrected%20proofs.pdf
Institutional Development in Renewable
Energy A Model for Developing Countries
http://www.menarec.com/docs/Abstract1.pdf
Financing Solar Thermal Power Plants
http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/3532-YwOlGi/webviewable/3532.pdf
Financing the alternative: renewable
energy in developing and transition
countries
http://www.cer.ethz.ch/research/wp_06_49.pdf
Financing Renewable Options
http://www.environmental-finance.com/2004/0504may/financ.htm
Assessment of Parabolic Trough and
Power Tower Solar Technology Cost
and Performance
Forecasts
http://www.nrel.gov/csp/troughnet/pdfs/35060.pdf
Mubadala Development
http://www.mubadala.ae
The International Solar Energy Society
http://www.ises.org
Wetex 2007 Conference in Dubai
http://www.wetex.ae/index1.htm
Middle East Electricity
http://www.middleeastelectricity.com
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