Book review: Techniques for Analyzing Jordan's Population Using Statistical Programs

A comprehensive civil registration system has a number of advantages over stop-gap measures available for obtaining vital statistics. It provides a continuous flow of data and the data is free of sampling errors. However most developing countries do not have an adequate civil registration system which can provide the vital statistics needed, and it is likely that it will be many years before all countries achieve the level of completeness and accuracy now present in industrialized countries.

The need for continued efforts to improve the civil registration system should not be ignored, particularly in Middle East and Africa. However, until levels of completeness and accuracy do improve in the developing world, books such as these serve the purpose of encouraging analysis of available population information. The main purposes of these books series are to encourage professionals to analyze population information and to make it easier for them to do so.

My goal is to produce textbooks that combine the mathematical derivations of techniques frequently used in basic classical demographic analysis, and the concepts of demographic indices and techniques in a way that is easy to understand. These books include references to more detailed sources for graduate and undergraduate students seeking a deeper understanding of the issue. The texts offer mainly the concepts, while the appendices present a more technical description.

The principal contribution of these books is not only the easily readable texts, but also a set of spreadsheets with Visual Basic for Application (VBA) which has been developed during recent years for analyzing population, migration, mortality and fertility information.

The first issue of these textbooks series was finished, which is the main purpose of first issue, is to anticipate the change in population size and characteristics. The size of the population can be projected by taking into account changes that have occurred in the past and present. Population growth rates are usually calculated based on past information, and they are used in specific mathematical functions for projecting the probable future size of the population.

Additionally, to simulate how the population changes according to its components of growth: mortality, fertility and migration. Based on past information, assumptions are made about future trends in these components of change. Then, the projected rates are applied to the age and sex structure of the population, in a simulation taking into account that people live differing amount of years according to their sex and age.

For adequate planning on the national and regional levels, every state requires detailed information about the characteristics of its society and about the specific goals of government programs to improve living conditions. Also required is knowledge about the potential impact and effects of such programs on the society and its development.

In their quest for social and economic development, developing countries often struggle with information that is incomplete or is not available at the time it is needed. Data are not only required, they are required at the opportune time for use before becoming obsolete.

In most developing countries, the availability of data has improved greatly in recent decades. All countries have expanded and strengthened the capabilities of their statistical offices, including activities related to information on population. In addition, most nations have begun to take housing, agricultural and industrial censuses as well.

We now need to encourage Middle East and Africa countries to improve data collection through new computer programs that now make readily availability tabulations appropriate for national planning. Furthermore, we need to encourage cooperation with professionals of technical assistance in this country. Improvement programs and facilities have accelerated the process of collecting and publishing information, but the availability of information is not the only concern. If data are available in our country but not analyzed, it is the same as if the data did not exist. The analysis, too, must be timely, as it may rapidly become obsolete in a highly dynamic society. The development of microcomputer programs can accelerate the process of analyzing the data.