Jordan Population Analysis

Author Bayan Al-Abdullat

Correspondence:
Institution: University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan.
Saint Anna Hospital, Brescia, Italy
Address: P.O Box: 962010 Sports City, Amman 11196, Jordan.
Tel #: 00962 79 9919567
Email: baymds@yahoo.com/ alabdullat.b@gmail.com

Abstract

The main purpose of a Jordan Population Analysis is to simulate how the Jordanian population changes according to its components of growth: mortality, fertility and migration. Based on past information, assumptions are made about future trends in these components of change. Then, the projected rates are applied to the age and sex structure of the population, in a simulation taking into account that people die according to their sex and age, and that women have children.

__________________

Introduction

In most developing countries, the availability of data has improved greatly in recent decades. All countries have expanded and strengthened the capabilities of their statistical offices, including activities related to information on population. In addition, most nations have begun to take housing, agricultural and industrial censuses as well.

We now need to encourage Jordanians to improve data collection through new computer programs that now make readily availability tabulations appropriate for national planning. Furthermore, we need to encourage cooperation with professionals of technical assistance in this country. Improvement programs and facilities have accelerated the process of collecting and publishing information, but the availability of information is not the only concern. If data are available in our country but not analyzed, it is the same as if the data did not exist. The analysis, too, must be timely, as it may rapidly become obsolete in a highly dynamic society. The development of microcomputer programs can accelerate the process of analyzing the data.

Thus, an analysis of the Jordanian population will provide the framework for development of the labor force and for economic growth, and therefore are important in the short term for estimating the future costs of social protection, such as for Jordan Social Security Corporation (JSSC) as the main pressures and therefore catalysts for change in social security systems have been demographic.

These pressures are principally the fact that; people are living longer, and women are having fewer children.
An example of JSSC systematic pressures is explained in the following diagram:

*Actuarial Studies Department – JSSC

Therefore, the financing of a traditional "pay-as-you go" system is becomingly increasingly challenging. This is true of Western European Countries where a number of significant changes have been made, but is increasingly seen in other parts of the world, where the change, if any thing has been quicker. There are a number of reasons for such changes: increasing prosperity in many countries, social changes, and people marrying later and so on. These pressures have led to a change in the dependency ratio for Jordan. The Dependency Ratio is the ratio of total population (0-14) age to total population (15-64) age at determined year for young, for example. The young ratio is greater than the old ratio, since number of (0-14) population age greater than (65-) age population and mortality rates are also greater; see Figure 1 below which shows the dependency ratio from 1997 to 2006 and the estimated ratio for the future year 2007:

Figure -1-

Objective:

In this project I'm attempting to:

• Estimate the sex and specific population for the year 2007.
  
• Provide summarized results for the selected year with a graph presentation.
  
• Show age-total indicators such as growth rates, average age, total fertility rates, life expectancy and infant mortality rates.

All components of Jordan Population Analysis research operate in Microsoft Excel for Windows software environment. I used a mathematical and statistical software analysis packages such as Minitab and NCSS. Additionally, I used a VBA module to draw population pyramids.

Projection Applied Method:

The "cohort component method" is used for the population analysis of Jordan. This method is described as follows:

• Dividing the total population of the base year into sex-age component (cohorts);
  
• Estimating the 2007 year of each cohort taking into account death and migration;
  
• Calculating the newborn by fertility rates and female population.
  

Figure -2- bellow illustrates the procedure of this method.
Basic Procedure for Jordan Population Projection

Population Projections:

A base population is determined, that agrees with known demographic characteristics of the country. Levels of mortality, fertility, and migration are determined for the base year and projected to future years. Then the base population is projected into the future according to the projected components of change.

• A base population is obtained after analyzing the available age and sex structure.
  
• One aspect of mortality must be projected: the pattern by age and sex.
  
• Two aspects of fertility must be projected: the level and the age pattern.
  
• Two aspects of migration (international migration) must be estimated: the total number of migrants and their age and sex composition.
  

With the projected components of population growth, the population can be projected by age and sex.

The component method of projecting a population follows each cohort of people of the same age throughout its lifetime according to its exposure to mortality, fertility, and migration. Starting with a base population by sex and age, the population at each specific age is exposed to the chances of dying as determined by projected mortality by age and sex. Once the deaths are estimated, they are subtracted from the surviving population, and those remaining alive become older.

Fertility rates are projected and applied to the female population in childbearing ages to estimate the number of births every year. Each cohort of children born is also followed through the time by exposing it to mortality.

Finally; the component method takes into account any in-migrants (immigrants) who are incorporated into the population and out-migrants (emigrants) who leave the population. Migrants are added to or subtracted from the year of the projection period, resulting in the projected population by age and sex, as well as the crude death and birth rates, rates of natural increase, and rates of population growth for each year. The projection can be carried out by single ages or by groups of ages.

Although most population projections are currently made by 5-year age groups, projections by single ages are becoming more frequent and may be the dominant type in the near future. Both alternatives can be described in a similar manner and hence, in order to simplify the symbols, the single age projection is described here.

Base Population By Age And Sex:

The research results indicated that not only age, but month and year of birth are widely recognized. Also, the distribution of the population by single years of age indicates that although there is some preference for ages ending in 0 or 5, the problem is limited.

Consequently, before accepting a population to serve as a base for the projections, an evaluation of the completeness of enumeration and the extent of age misreporting should be undertaken and adjustments made as required. Information form post-enumeration surveys also will help in evaluating the quality of the base population data. See figure 3 below which shows the total number of population for males and females from 1997 to 2006 and the projected population for the future year 2007:

Figure -3-

Migration:

Introduction:

Since few countries in the world have population registers to collect information on migration, this component of population has to be neglected because of unavailability of immigration information and data. Thus, I would to talk about migration in brief.

With the improvement of economic conditions and the increase of communication and transportation systems, people increase their desire to change residence. A mere change of residence however does not always constitute a migratory movement. Although there is no precise definition for migration, it is understood that it involves a certain distance. Thus, a change of residence within a relatively small area (a city or the smallest administrative division) is not considered a migratory movement. A migratory move also implies an intention that the move may be permanent. Hence, a migrant is a person who moves a certain distance with the intention that the move to be permanent and the move affects the population growth of the areas of both origin and destination.

Migration is, therefore, the third component of the population growth of an area, together with fertility and mortality.

Thus, to estimate the number of emigrants for next future year 2007, one must do a 5- year average calculating for male, female and total; see (figure 4) below which indicates the number of immigrants curves at age x for male and female in projected year 2007.

Figure -4-

Mortality:

Since reliable information on deaths and population is available from registers and censuses, direct calculations of mortality can be made based on these data. The crude death rate is the most common and the easiest to calculate, but often more complicated measures are needed because they provide additional information. Infant mortality, in particular, is an important indicator of a country's development. Age specific death rates for other ages are also important in deciding which ages to target for particular programs. Life expectancy is a useful summary measure because it takes into account the mortality situation at each age yet expresses the result in a single figure.

Thus, estimated mortality rates are constructed by using "Sum of 2 Exponentials" new modified models for male and female:

Model Fit:
Estimated Number of Deaths = A*EXP (-B*(x)) +C*EXP (-D*(x)),
where A, B, C, &D are integers, and x represents single age.

The survival rates P(x,t,s) are calculated by using the mortality rates in year t: q(x,t,s) as the following below:

We need to suppose that the deaths in any given age are spread uniformly during a year. Then, for 0<h<1, we have:

- _hq_x = h * q_x ( _hp_x = 1-h.q_x)
- _(1-h)q_x+h = _(1-h)q_x / (1-h.q_x) (_(1-h)p_x+h = (1- q_x) / (1-h. q_x)

Thus,
1p_x + 1/2 = 1/2p_x + 1/2 * 1/2p_x + 1 = (1- q_x)/(1-1/2 * q_x).(1-1/2 . q_x+1)

Life Table:

A Life table describes the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off with age. Life table is the earliest and most important tool in demography. It is widely used for descriptive and analytical purposes in demography, public health, epidemiology, population geography, biology and many other branches of science.

Also, a life table serves useful purposes both within the demographic community and in the world at large. And it is the source of estimates of the life expectancy at birth. In addition, it provides survival ratios for each age or age group that are used in making population projections. Life insurance companies use life tables (which they call actuarial tables) to determine their clients' probable life spans and hence their insurance premiums according to their particular characteristics.

Each country has to have a life table that includes basic data about age, death rate, and survival rate for the population in that country classified by sex that can be used by insurance companies for calculating premiums, which has a rational relationship with age. Insurance companies might not accept one's policy at a certain age because of high risk.

I use the Coale-Demeny regional model life table. This set is used for various theoretical and estimation purposes. In demographic estimation, fragmentary information on mortality is compared with the models to estimate infant mortality and other specific parameters. Model mortality patterns are used in reconstructing life tables. For projection purposes, model life specific levels of life expectancy at birth.

Loop starting from x=0 and terminated at x= 100.

1. The initial value of Lm(x) = 100,000 at x=0
   
2. Calculate Qx(m) = nx*mx(m)/(1+(nx-ax(m)*mx(m)) & Qx(f) = nx*mx(f)/(1+(nx-ax(f)*mx(f)).
   
3. Calculate Px(m) = (1- q_x)/(1-1/2 * q_x). (1-1/2 . q_x + 1)
   
4. Multiply Lm(x) by (1-Qm(x)) by to get Lm(x+1) & Lf(x) by (1-Qf(x)) by to get Lf(x+1).
   
5. The initial value now is Lm(x+1), redo the above steps until x=100

Notice that at x= 100; the mortality rate equals to 1, therefore survival rate will be equal to zero and hence the population at age 100 will be approximately zero.

Figure -5-

See figure 5 in above which shows the probability of survival to age x and probability of death at age x curves (from 1000,000 at age 0) in 2007.

Some observations from the life table for Jordan:

1. Males in Jordan at year 2007 will have higher mortality rates than females until age 69 and the opposite from 70 to 99 age groups based on the life expectancy for both sexes.
   
2. From previous life tables for Jordan in general males have higher death rates. This could be due to high-risk job positions that males practice, also most accidents affect men, especially during the young period.
   
3. Newborns in Jordan have high mortality rates for both sexes (infant mortality rate).
   
4. There are few people in Jordan who will live to be more than 90 years old, but if we compare this with previous years their numbers are greater, due to the medical improvements in Jordan, especially in the surgical field.

Fertility:

Introduction:

Like mortality, fertility has begun to decline in many developing countries in recent decades, such as "Jordan ", which is a developing country, but in only some countries has the decline been as striking as the decline of mortality. Thus, in spite of significant reductions, birth rates (the number of births per 100,000 populations) are still greater than mortality rates.

As with mortality, the procedure used to measure the level of fertility in a population depends on the availability of data and on the detail of the information. For cases where vital registration is complete, fertility can be measured directly using classical indices (demographic indicators). Unfortunately, most developing countries do not have reliable vital statistics, and hence techniques have been developed to measure fertility indirectly based on census or survey information, such as (Jordan Statistical Department).

To formulate or evaluate policies concerning population growth, information is needed not only on the number of births, but also number and age of women having births.

So, I will discuss the following techniques used in measuring fertility:

Direct Estimation of Fertility
Based on information on births and population, several indices can be calculated for measuring fertility and reproduction. Such information, which is not always free of errors, is provided by vital registers, census and surveys.

The most frequently used indices or demographic indicators are presented:

1. Crude birth rate and its standardization (for estimating the impact of changing age structure on fertility) that is related to population growth.
   
2. Age specific fertility rate and the total fertility rate and their standardization (mainly for analyzing the change in marital fertility and proportion of women married).
   
3. Gross and net reproduction rates.

Indirect Estimation of Fertility
The projection of fertility shares certain similarities with the projection of mortality. In most cases, the level of total fertility rates is projected first, and then the pattern of the age-specific fertility rates is estimated. Occasionally, these steps are reversed: the age pattern of fertility is projected first, and then the corresponding total fertility rates are calculated. For developing countries, the first sequence is the most frequently used because the second one requires reliable information and historical time series that only developed countries are likely to have.

For projecting the level of fertility, we have to determine a trend of total fertility rates between the base-year level and the target level.

Fertility Assumptions
In the first step, fertility assumptions are described generally in terms of the following groups of countries:

• High-fertility country: those that until 2045 has no fertility reduction or only an incipient decline.
  
• Medium-fertility country: those where total fertility rate (TFR) is declining but whose level is still above 2.1 children per woman in 2000-2045.
  
• Low-fertility Country: those with TFR at or below 2.1 children per woman in 2000-2045.
  

In terms of the ultimate TFR level's assumption, I have concentrated on three variants: low, medium, and high are set out. The ultimate TFR level is determined according to the TFR in the base year as shown in the table below:

Additionally, I have used four options to interpolate the TFRs in the base year (2000) and the target year (2045). They are set out as follows:

Let t=0 the base year; t=T the target year; TFR0: the TFR in the base year;
TFR1: the TFR in the target year. Then, the TFR in year t (0<t<T) is obtained by:

Linear Option : TFRt = (1- t/T) TFR0 + t/T. TFR1

Logistic Option: TFRt = ½( TFR0 + TFR1 ) + ½( TFR0 - TFR1 ) cos (t / T)

Rapid Option : TFRt = TFR0 + (TFR1- TFR0 ) sin (t / 2T)

Slow Option : TFRt = TFR1 + (TFR0 - TFR1 ) cos (t / 2T)

* Note on assumptions:

In the first step, Jordan is grouped into the following three categories:

(i) High-fertility: if Jordan had no fertility reduction or only a small decline.
(ii) Medium-fertility: if Jordan TFR has been declining but whose level is still above the replacement level (2.0 children per woman).
(iii) Low-fertility countries: if Jordan TFR is below the replacement level or alike.

And I have four alternative assumptions which are then set out for each group.

1. Under Medium variant, The TFR in Jordan high-fertility declines on average by 1 child per woman for every 5 years; the TFR in Jordan medium-fertility reaches the replacement level before 2050; the TFR in Jordan low fertility remains below the replacement level and reaches by 2045-2050 the fertility of the cohort born in the early 1960s.
   
2. Under Low -fertility variant, in high and medium-fertility countries the ultimate TFR is set lower than Medium variant by 0.5 children per woman; in low-fertility countries the ultimate TFR is set lower than Medium variant by 0.4 children per woman.
   
   I assumed the target year 2045 to find the purpose "year 2007", by the reverse way; which means I found fertility rates through ages 15 to 49 for females from the years 2006 to 2045 by applying all the above options and interpolations based on the base year fertility rates, and TFRs.

Figure -6-

From the above graph, the year 2000 curve remains uninfluenced by the changes in selections fertility decreasing trend and childbearing option, since it's the base year for our estimation of future 2007 fertility rates at specific ages.
According to Intermediate variant and World pattern, we will have in the (future) year 2007:

The analysis focuses on a number of fertility indicators, including levels, patterns, and trends in both current and cumulative fertility; the length of birth intervals; and the age at which women marry and initiate child-bearing. Furthermore, information on current and cumulative fertility is essential in monitoring the progress and evaluating the impact of the population programs in Jordan. Still further decline can be expected in the future.

Levels and Trends
At future fertility levels, a woman in Jordan will have an average of 3.18 children - a total fertility rate that is 9 percent lower than the rate recorded earlier as the pace of decline in 2000 (3.53 children per woman). While fertility has continued to decline, recently it has slowed.

Significant differentials in fertility exist among subgroups, a difference of almost one child. There are also large differences in fertility by educational attainment of women. Women who have attended higher than secondary education have the fewest children in their lifetime, while women with preparatory education have more than women with no education.

Age at First Marriage
One of the factors influencing the fertility decline has been the rising age at which Jordanian women marry.

For example, the proportion of women age 20-24 who are still single has increased from 61 percent in 2000 to 66 percent in 2007. The proportion of women ages 20-24 who were married by age 18 has decreased from 14 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2007.

One of the more important effects of the increase in the age at marriage has been a reduction in childbearing in adolescence; in the year 2007 the overall level of childbearing among women age 15-19 is 3 percent, a 25 percent reduction in teenage childbearing from 4 percent in 2000.
Data on steps taken to control fertility is of considerable importance to family planning program planners because it gives insight into one of the principal determinants of fertility and serves as a key measure for assessing the success of the national family planning program.

Knowledge of Contraceptive Methods
Knowledge of family planning methods among currently married women in Jordan has been universal for some time. One hundred percent of married women have heard of the pill, followed by female sterilization (98 percent), while injections and the male condom are known to about nine of every ten women. On average, a married woman knows about 10 family planning methods.

Women under age 30 are more likely than older women to mention the desire to have children, while infecundity and menopause are more often reported by older women. Husband's or respondent's disapproval of contraception is mentioned more often by younger women than by women age 30 and over. Fear of side effects is cited more often by younger women than older women. Married women who were not using contraception at the time of the survey, but reported that they intended to use, were asked about the method they intend to use.

Need For Family Planning
Radio and television are the major sources of information about family planning in the media besides print and other sources. To assess the effectiveness of those media for disseminating family planning information, all ever-married women were asked if they had heard, seen or read messages about family planning on the radio, television or other mentioned sources during the few months prior to the survey.

Information on fertility preferences and on the intention to use family planning in the future is of particular interest to policymakers and program managers as they seek to address the contraceptive needs of nonusers who are concerned about spacing or limiting their childbearing.

Despite the increased use of family planning methods, the increase in age at first marriage, and the apparent decline in fertility, the Jordan Population Analysis reveals a number of continuing challenges. Although it is encouraging to note that the level of unmet need for family planning services in 2007 was lower than that in the 2000, many women want to stop childbearing or delay the next birth for at least two years, but are not using a contraceptive method.

Note: Usually the fertility rate at a specific age is decreasing until age 44 then it remains stable at the age axis, since the ability of a group of woman to have children in later ages might impact on her health and on her children (infant mortality rate "IMR") and (total fertility rate), and might influence on brain cells and the child's brain caused by the mother's physical condition, which refer to:

Direct factors:
1. Loss of fertility for woman
2. Hormone disturbance
3. Medication capsules and doses.
4. The "Diabetic disease"
5. Heredity
6. Iron (Fe) "out of range".
7. CEA: smoker.

Indirect factors:
1) Education level
2) Number of males.
3) Residences.
4) Income
5) Worker women

Jordan Population Analysis Results
As of 2007, the population was estimated at 5.7 million, and it is expected to reach 6 million by the year 2010. Population growth averaged 2.60 percent in 1997, and 2.51 percent in 2007.

The high rate of growth in 2007 reflected the influx of immigrants to Jordan from Iraq, and the inflow of a large number of guest workers. The rapid increases in population have created several problems for the country - namely, shortages in food, water, housing, and employment opportunities, as well as strains on the education system and the urban infrastructure. Fertility declines in Jordan have contributed to slowing the population growth rate.

Urbanization is a particularly important topic in Jordan. Historically, internal rural-to-urban migration, as well as immigration, has contributed to rapid urban growth. Recent international crises have also impacted flows of migration into Jordan.

Results of my Jordan Population Analysis project indicate that the age structure of the population has changed considerably since 1997 - the result of changes in fertility, mortality, and migration dynamics. The proportion of the population under 15 years of age declined from 37.5 percent in 1997 to 37.2 percent by 2007, while the proportion of those age 65 and over has been rising; from 3.3 percent in 1997 to 3.4 percent by 2007.

Fertility has been declining in Jordan from 1997. This project has found that the total fertility rate declined from 3.53 children per woman in 1997 to 3.18 in 2007; fertility fell almost one child more between 1997 and 2007.

Mortality has also increased in Jordan. The crude death rate, estimated at 3 per thousand in 1997, had increased to 4 by 2007. The infant mortality rate also declined from 13 per thousand in 1997 to 7 in 2007. Drops in infant mortality, translate into increased life expectancy for the population: in 2007, life expectancy in Jordan reached 71.3 for males and 73.9 for females.

Figure -7-

Figure -8-

Population
The percent distribution of the population by group age and sex serves two purposes. The first is to show the effects of past demographic trends on the population and to give an indication of future trends. The second is to describe the context in which various demographic processes are operating.

Population Growth Rate:
From chart 9 we can see that growth rate is fluctuating from 1997 to 2007 because of changing in births and population for both sexes.

Figure -9-

Sex Ratio:

Figure -10-

One can observe from chart 10 above that the male population is greater than female population in the years 1997-2007 during which time the sex ratio has decreased from 1.09 in 1997 to 1.06 in 2007. This implies that the female population changes more than male population.

Life Expectancy:

Figure -11-

From figure 11 we can conclude that the life expectancy at birth is increasing between 1997 to 2007 for both sexes, though it decreased for males less than for females during this time period. This difference is a result of the increase in mortality rates for males, which has many social and physical causes.

Infant Mortality
Estimates of levels, trends, and differentials in neonatal, post-neonatal, and child mortality are important both for monitoring and evaluating ongoing health programs and for use in formulating future policies. The levels of infant and child mortality are viewed as basic indicators of the socioeconomic situation, quality of life, and general standard of living in a society.

Thirteen of 1,000 infants born in the year 1997 and seven of 1,000 infants born in the year 2007 will not survive to their first birthday. These mortality rates indicate that there has been an improvement in child survival in Jordan since 1997, when infant mortality rates were 13 and 3 crude deaths per thousand children, respectively, see figure 12.

As expected, infant mortality is slightly lower among males than among females (28 per 1,000 and 26 per 1,000 respectively in 1997, though in 2007 it is slightly higher among males than among females 28 per 1,000 and 28.4 per 1,000 respectively). However, child mortality is the same for both sexes. The relationship between mother's age (at birth) and infant mortality shows a U-shaped curve. These mortality measures are substantially higher among children born to mothers less than 20 or age 40 and over. First births and higher-order births experience higher mortality, indicating a shallow U-shaped relationship between birth order and mortality.

Figure -12-

Population By Year of Birth
The purpose of graphing the population by year of birth rather than by age groups is to relate certain irregularities of the age structure to historical facts that may have affected the age distribution. In this case, cohorts are followed easily on the vertical axis of the graph. For ease, a semi-logarithmic scale is used where the population age structure may be considered as a map of its demographic history.

Persons of the same age constitute a cohort of people who were born during the same year (or period); they have been exposed to similar historical facts and conditions in the nation. The age structure of the whole population at a given moment may be viewed as an aggregation of cohorts born in different years. A graphic representation of the age structure of the population, such as an "age pyramid" shows the different surviving cohort of people of each sex in Jordan.

The age pyramid illustrations in figures 13 &14 below represent a population which show a nominal value measure in which fertility fluctuated significantly during the future 2007 (that is approximately systematic increasing male and female population from), and insignificant fluctuations in fertility for both sexes; where age has been affected by the small impact of mortality changes.

Figure -13-

Figure -14

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