Evaluation of increasing susceptibility of areas surrounding Kala Bagh Dam, Pakistan to flood risk: A review




Amna Butt
Aisha Khan
Sheikh Saeed Ahmad


Department of Environmental Sciences,
Fatima Jinnah Women University,
Rawalpindi, Pakistan


Correspondence:
Amna Butt
Department of Environmental Sciences,
Fatima Jinnah Women University,
Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Email: ambutt91@yahoo.com

Abstract

Natural calamities destabilize the financial status of the affected nation/country. It destroys the persisting infrastructure causing the destruction of accomodation, common facilities and the health care system. The 2010 Pakistan floods have killed over 1,700 people and directly destroyed the lives of over 20 million people . Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was the worst hit province which suffered massive losses of human lives, infrastructure and economy; and also caused serious environmental hazards. The expected heavy rainfalls of upcoming years in this region of the country will possibly lead to extreme flooding throughout the Indus river basin, thus increasing the flood risk and additional losses. Since dams are known to have a function for flood management, development of Kalabagh Dam is thought to be crucial for the alleviation of future flood risk in the province. However, at provincial level there are still a few objections regarding its construction but ample water wastage and livelihood loss caused by 2010 flood has brought its importance in regards of flood management to the forefront.

Key words: Natural disaster, Kalabagh Dam, Flood management, Flood Impacts, Flood prevention, Health impacts, Risk awareness, Monsoon rains, anthropogenic factors of flood, "La Niña"

1. Introduction
Floods are natural occurrences around the globe, predominantly caused by events such as heavy rainfall, steep slopes and topographic features of an area along with the role of anthropogenic activities (Khan and Mohmand, 2011). They cause immense losses in terms of human life, infrastructure and property (Montgomery, 2006; Kirsch et al, 2012). Pakistan, due to its topography and rainfall patterns, has records of floods varying in severity. However, among them the most devastating ones were the floods of 2010 and 2011 (Qureshi, 2011). Leading drivers of the increasing flood damage in Pakistan, especially in the Indus plain, are the anthropogenic factors such as global warming, extreme weather events, increase in sea level, deforestation ,urbanization, economic growth and changes in land use practices.
The widespread floods all over Pakistan in the year 2010 (late July and August) became a trigger for flood riots, social unrest, and increasing concern over spread of epidemic diseases. It was claimed to be the worst naturally occurring calamity of Pakistan's history and was said to be caused by the unprecedented monsoon rains which lasted for almost two months. At the peak of flooding, it approximately brought one-fifth of total land area of Pakistan underwater (Veresay, 2010). As shown in Fig. 1 the flooding was observed in the majority of the forty-six of Pakistan's 135 districts and caused monetary loss of about $9.7 billion (ADB-WB, 2012). Approximately 20 million people were affected by flood that year in terms of damage to their lives, homes, crops and infrastructure (Straatsma et al. 2011; Akhter, 2011; WFP, 2012; Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2013) and were displaced (OCHA, 2010). This damage tended to have long lasting effects not only on farmers' lives and economically valuable crops but also on schools (approximately more than 10,000) and other physical infrastructure (Akhter, 2011; Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2013). The effect on the economy, including livestock, animal sheds, fertilizers, agriculture crops, personal seed stocks, agricultural machinery, fisheries and forestry, was more than any of the previously occurring losses due to a natural catastrophe in the region (FAO, 2012). Approximately, 80% of food reserves of Pakistan were lost (Polastro et al, 2012).


Figure 1: Map showing flooding status of different districts of Pakistan in the year 2010
(Source: Veresay, 2010)

2. Impacts of 2010 flood on Pakistan
Flood damage in Pakistan was most evident in the districts of Nowshera and D. I. Khan in KPK, Rajanpur and Muzaffargarh in the Punjab, and Thatta, Shikarpur, Jaffarabad and Jacobabad in Sindh (ESP, 2010-2011).The flood produced an adverse effect on the health of the local population. 6.2 million consultations for dermatologic conditions, gastroenteritis, malaria and respiratory infections, were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 50 districts of the total 64 affected districts between August and September 2010 (Warraich et al., 2011). The flood also resulted in the destruction of the natural environment and natural resources. It has caused the erosion of forest land, killing of wildlife, washing out of native aquatic fauna, growth and distribution of exotic flora and fauna, dispersal of epidemic diseases, increase in pollution, and destruction of the habitats and previously existing ecosystems (Khan et al, 2010).

2.1 Impacts of 2010 flood on KPK
About 22 July monsoon rains began to fall in northwest mountainous region of Pakistan leading to flash floods in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces (Akhter, 2011; Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2013). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was the worst hit province due to a westerly weather system combined with heavy and prolonged monsoon rains in the area (Khan and Mohmand, 2011). Table 1 shows the Indus and Kabul river outflows in different regions of KPK during the 2010 flood and their flow status.


Table 1: Indus and Kabul river outflows in KPK flood during 2010

Along with the destruction of human lives and livestock (Provincial disaster management cell, 2010), crops, irrigation water supply system, infrastructure and economy; 2010 floods also posed serious environmental hazards in KPK (Khan and Mohmand, 2011). The causes of these floods were steep slopes (topography), prolonged rainfall, rapid and unplanned urban development, deforestation, development of infrastructure and high sedimentation rate (Khan and Mohmand, 2011).

3. Future Risk and implications of Flood
The late July - August 2010 monsoon rains was 180% above normal in KPK, Pakistan with the reports of 300mm in excess on 29 July, 2010 as reported by Sayah (2010), Slingo (2010), Vastag (2011) and Oxley (2011) in their respective analysis of 2010 floods in KPK Pakistan. These rains are considered to be caused by a combination of "La Nina" (induced high sea surface temperatures), strong winds (jet stream) and large amounts of moist air over the Indian Ocean (Oxley, 2011). The analysis of these factors lead to the proposition that in the upcoming years unusually heavy rainfalls would be experienced frequently in the northern areas of Pakistan, due to global warming. It is evident that the unusually heavy rains in the northern areas of the country caused the high levels of extreme flooding throughout the basin of the River Indus, that lead to the record losses across every region of Pakistan (Oxley, 2011). The soil of the region will be prone to erosion in the future and will also be a source of siltation of streams and rivers with pouring rains and high surface flows. The decrease in vegetation cover might contribute to surface run off and will decrease the percolation and aquifer revival rates. The loss of farms, forests and linear plantations on agricultural fields will lead to economic stress on the communities, as they will have to purchase energy sources such as LPG cylinders or they will cut trees for fuel wood causing additional loss of vegetation cover. The loss of agricultural crops, fruit orchards, forests and natural vegetation will affect the wildlife populations, as these problems result in the loss of cover, nesting sites, food resources and habitat for them. The ultimate result will be the exposure of wildlife to hunters (Khan et al, 2010). The floods incidents, if repeated, will cause the destruction of social and local community life and will cause stress on the local population resulting in many economical, occupational and psychological impacts.

4. Kalabagh Dam (KBD) Project and flood management
Flooding is a natural part of a river's cycle and it only becomes catastrophic when people are not well prepared to cope up with it and property is not appropriately planned and designed. Many dams have the specifications of controlling flood, but in some cases dams actually cause floods (NFIP). The floods of 2010 resurfaced the debate about the Kalabagh Dam as flood control is considered as one of the major benefits of this dam. The Kalabagh Dam site is 210 km downstream of the Tarbela Dam and approximately 26 km upstream of the Jinnah Barrage on the River Indus (Pakistan Water Gateway). Indus River rises in Tibet at an elevation of about 18,000 ft. above sea level. After flowing through the Himalayan mountain ranges and then foothills, it spreads into the Punjab plains at the town of Kalabagh and flows further 770 miles across the plains before reaching the sea (Izhar-ul-Haq, 1984-85). The proposed design of the dam presents the plan the construction of a 260 ft. high rock-fill dam having the maximum retention level at about 915 ft. Its reservoir would have the working storage of an estimated 6.1 MAF. It will also have two spillways on the right bank for the active distribution of flood water for quick proper disposal. It is also proposed that in the event of probable floods, these spillways will be able to discharge over 2 million cusecs of water. The final power house will be constructed on the left bank and will have the final generation capacity of 3600 MW (WAPDA, 1999). The mean annual river flow at Kalabagh is 90.00 MAF. It is due to the presence of many additional nullahs and tributaries that join the Indus River between KB Dam and Diamer Bhasha Dam. So, the mean volume of flood to be managed at Kalabagh is about 2,200,000 cusecs (Luna and Jabbar, 2011). The Kalabagh dam has been thoroughly investigated from multiple aspects since the inception of its idea in 1952. These technical (Izhar-ul-Haq, 1983; Luna and Jabbar, 2011; WAPDA, 2010) environmental and ecological impacts (Kazi, 2001; Ali, 2006), social (Memon, 2002), economical, power and energy provision (Abbasi et al, 2013), and political impacts (Mustafa, 2010; Feyyaz, 2011) have been rigorously investigated by various governmental, national and international organizations, technical consultants and experts, independent dam engineers and political, social and environmental experts.

As mentioned above, among the many proposed benefits of developing the Kalabagh dam (power generation, supply of water for irrigation etc.) one was flood alleviation. It was proposed that the project will be helpful in reducing the severity and frequency of damage caused by floods in downstream areas. It was proposed that the reservoir will absorb some floods while others will be abated significantly by refilling the reservoir and the annual average flood alleviation benefits to be derived from the dam were estimated to be Rs. 0.70 Billion (Pakistan water and development authority, 2001; GOP, 2001). However, historical evidence suggests differently such as the reported prevalence of severe flood impacts after the construction of other major dams in Pakistan namely Mangla and Tarbela (Water Sector Report, 1997; Khan, 1999; Khan, 2003). This leads KPK people to be concerned about the development of Kalabagh dam over the past years. This concern is based on the serious threat to the survival of Nowshera town and surrounding areas due to prevalent high flood (as in case of 1929) which they believed will happen due to backwater effect of Kalabagh dam. This effect is thought by them to raise water level of Kabul river and thus threaten the survival of Nowshera town. Yet Bhatti, (2011) argued that this concern is not valid since various investigations such as that of Water and Power Development Authority of Pakistan (WAPDA) negated this theory and stated that the backwater effect will not affect the town as it would end about 10 miles downstream (WAPDA, 1999). Similar results were obtained by the research of Malik, (2005) and Malik, (1999) also argued that Munda Dam project (Swat River) will further provide protection to the town against the flood as stated by Bhatti, (2011).

Figure 2 shows that along with KPK, other Provinces have also raised various objections regarding KBD based on the possible environmental and socio-economic impacts of its construction (Ahmad, 2014; Rasheed, 2013; Bhatti, 2011; Rajput, 2011; Khan, 1999). The specifications of these objections are illustrated in Table 2.


Figure 2: Oppositions to KBD construction


Table 2: Objections of Pakistani Provinces against KBD Construction based on its impacts

Research conducted on KBD from all the aforementioned perspectives makes its construction the most controversial issue in Pakistan where many are opposing it (Rasheed, 2013; Rajput, 2011; Khan, 1999) while others are supporting it (Bhatti, 2011; Malik, 2005; Malik, 1999). It is yet to be ascertained whether its harmful impacts overcome the positive ones (such as flood prevention) or vice versa.

5. Conclusion
Increasing climatic changes make it a necessity to develop infrastructure for water storage for upcoming dry periods. Unfortunately such infrastructure development is opposed by various societal segments in Pakistan. Kalabagh dam has particularly become an exceedingly controversial project of Pakistani history. Not only the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but also Sindh has shown opposition to the dam construction even though the evidence proved their objections and reservations both baseless and groundless. The project is not only useful for economy and energy generation but the loss of lives and properties by the 2010 flood and ample wastage of water has revealed the importance of this dam in regards of flood and water management. Estimates revealed that 59 million acre feet water passed through Kotri barrage during flood and it is obvious that large dams like KBD can prove to be beneficial for flood prevention. However, it should not be considered as the only way of preventing the floods in the KPK region and other measures should also be adopted after the complete study of the region.

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